Super El Niño Could Cause 451,000 Deaths: Experts

Experts have warned that the ongoing “Super El Niño” could lead to an estimated 451,000 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026 and February 2027, according to a report attributed to the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.

The report estimates that around 239,000 additional deaths could occur during the next six months. That figure is above the number of deaths normally associated with heat.

The toll could rise if El Niño conditions persist into spring 2027, the report warns.

Global South Faces the Sharpest Heat-Related Risks

The Global South is expected to bear much of the projected impact.

In sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated 66,800 additional deaths could occur over the next six months.

Nigeria could account for about 31,400 deaths, according to the report. Sudan follows with an estimated 17,500 deaths.

Niger could record about 10,000 additional deaths, while Chad could see around 8,000.

Africa Could Bear the Brunt of the Projected Death Toll

The projected figures highlight the concentration of risks across several African countries.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could collectively record about 19,400 additional deaths.

Indonesia could see an estimated 19,300 additional deaths. India is projected to experience more than 15,800.

Brazil could face the highest projected toll in South America, with around 13,300 additional heat-related deaths.

Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said researchers have long studied temperature effects on crops.

Researchers can now also estimate the potentially severe human consequences of extreme heat, Greenstone said.

El Niño Could Extend Heat Risks Into 2027

Jeffrey Shaman, a professor at Columbia Climate School, said historical data show a broader warming pattern after El Niño events.

He said the year following an El Niño event is generally warmer. That trend could create additional heat-related risks in 2027.

The warning adds another layer of concern if current El Niño conditions continue beyond the coming months.

Urban Poor Face Growing Exposure to Extreme Heat

Professor Sheila Foster highlighted the particular vulnerability of low-income urban populations.

According to the report, the number of urban residents exposed to extreme heat has increased by 200 percent since 1982.

Around 1.7 billion people are now exposed to extreme heat, the report estimates.

Foster also noted that many heat-related deaths occur indoors, highlighting risks that can extend beyond outdoor exposure.