Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
There has been almost a month since the closure of Torkham and Chaman borders for Afghan Transit Trade, with thousands of containers loaded with edible items both perishable and non-perishable stranded on both sides of the border.
Afghanistan is now feeling the heat of the Afghan Transit Trade Route closure. It may not be possible for Kabul to sustain the huge economic losses for long which is badly impacting its already fragile economy. The alternate routes the Taliban government is exploring through Iran’s Chabahar Port and via Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is economically not feasible due to long distance and huge transportation charges involved, which according to business experts, would increase the transportation charges by 30-50 per cent, thus making Afghan exports uncompetitive in the international market and also it’s huge imports too expensive for local consumers. This may ultimately give rise to an intense public backlash eliciting people’s resentment that may ultimately force the Afghan interim government to soften its irrational and rigid stance, and come to the negotiating table with Pakistan once again.
The Taliban need to understand that without a robust economy they may not be able to rule for long. History of mighty nations and great empires bears witness to the fact that great empires have crumbled and powerful countries disintegrated once their economy collapsed. The erstwhile USSR is a case in point. The Taliban must learn a lesson from history.
A fair majority of Taliban have a pretty tainted history of extremist ideology and are not looked upon favourably by the public. However, being in the saddle, they are overshadowing the moderate and sane elements who are in the minuscule minority. My gut feeling is that their false pride and strict adherence to their self-conceived ideology will be razed to the ground if the general public turns against them which is most likely to happen, sooner or later.
International community is not happy with Taliban’s rigidity and highhandedness and feels that an extremist minority is imposing its ideology on the moderate majority. It’s intently watching what all is going in and around Afghanistan, and to my understanding won’t let the tail wagging the dog for long.
Impelled by the Taliban’s rigidity and stubbornness, Pakistan has decided to continue with the current strategy of border closure for trade and all kinds of traffic in order to build pressure on Kabul to come to terms with reality and accept Pakistan’s genuine demand. Remember, through Torkham and Chaman borders, not only trade is being done but also human trafficking takes place transporting criminal elements into Pakistan.
Finding no other option, Pakistan, besides border closure, is mulling over launching surgical strikes on the terrorist sanctuaries in the rugged mountains of Afghanistan and also deep inside Afghanistan in pursuit of the hard-core terrorists who are orchestrating the terror attacks inside Pakistan and shedding the blood of innocent people day in and day out. This is the only way to neutralise and emasculate the terror strength and turn the Afghan public against the Taliban which will ultimately bring them to their knees. It looks like the Taliban’s days are numbered and their downfall is a writing on the wall, sooner or later, if they continue clinging to their stubbornness and fail to see reason.
Pakistan’s policy of restraint vis-a-vis Kabul’s intransigence is commendable and is hailed both domestically and internationally. It still looks at Afghanistan as a brother Islamic country and a friendly neighbour. The Taliban need to understand that if there is any sincere friend on earth who has been standing with them like a rock through thick and thin, it’s none else but Pakistan. They should realize that Pakistan is the only country in the world who has sided with them openly and who has been forcefully pleading their case at international forum to convince the world and turn the world view in their favour. The Taliban fail to understand that their unholy alliance with India which has created an artificial bonhomie between the two countries is destined to meet its tragic end after India either achieves or fails to achieve its objectives, because India is using them as a mere cat’s paw.
Despite all odds, Pakistan has been trying to make the Taliban understand and mend fences with them taking them as friends and a good neighbour but to no avail. Pakistan’s only genuine demand urging Kabul is that its soil shouldn’t be used for terrorism against Pakistan by the TTP (renamed as Fitna Al-Khawarij) terrorists. But Kabul has been wilfully turning a blind eye to what all is happening right under their nose. If Kabul persists in ignoring Pakistan’s genuine demand and fails to rein in the TTP, Pakistan will be left with no option but to take extreme measures to safeguards it’s frontiers and secure it’s sovereignty. Pakistan may even launch surgical strikes across the border on terrorist sanctuaries in the mountains of Afghanistan and also deep inside Afghanistan in order to eliminate terrorist activities carried out inside Pakistan by the TTP terrorists, if push comes to shove.
Having said that, war has never been a solution to disputes between two nations. History of wars tells us that every war ends up in a negotiated settlement. Pakistan doesn’t believe in using war as an instrument of national policy, a theory advanced by the famous Prussian military theorist Clausewitz. Pakistan strongly believes in a dialogue for the resolution of mutual disputes/irritants. Same holds good when it comes to the resolution of current row with Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is pursuing a wrong policy and its rulers are treading the path of confrontation, thus turning their back on their benefactor i.e., Pakistan and embracing Afghanistan’s one-time sworn enemy, namely India which won’t take much time to leave them hanging in the wind once its purpose is served.
The IEA shouldn’t forget that Pakistan has always extended a helping hand to Afghanistan during difficult times merely because of Islamic brotherhood and hosted more than four million Afghan refugees after their exodus from Afghanistan following its occupation by erstwhile USSR in 1979.
