Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
The unexpected resistance put up by Iran wreaking massive damage and high casualty rates to Israel and the US military bases in the Gulf countries has changed the calculus of war for the invading forces, thus turning the tables on both the US and Israel forcing them to abandon their original blitzkrieg strategy and find a way out that could provide them with an honourable exit from the theatre of war.
Though president Donald trump tries to convince the world regarding his assumed victory over Iran, the world thinks otherwise. With the tough fight put up by Iran, the US’ imperial hubris finds itself on the downslide. The relatively softer tone and tenor adopted by president Donald Trump in recent days is suggestive of the fact that he is willy-nilly inclined to go half way and find a middle ground in order to have a patch- up with Iran on terms that could be acceptable to both sides.
However, Iran doesn’t seem inclined to make any kind of deal with the US given president Trump’s unpredictability and volatile nature. Iran seeks sovereign guarantees not only from the US but from the world too that the US won’t attack it in the future, will pay for the damages done to it in the recent unwarranted war and pack up it’s military bases from the Gulf countries that could smoothen the way for a deal which the US is not inclined to agree to. So, there seems a remote possibility of a negotiated settlement.
After having employed a massive military force and having carried out relentless bombing, even using the mother of all bombs (MoB) targeting every nook and corner of Iran causing massive collateral damages and eliminating it’s senior leadership including it’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, it’s security chief Ali Larijani and top military leadership in a bid to bring about a regime change, it finally dawned upon President Trump that it was not possible to achieve the objective through the use of brute force. Having realized that, president Trump is now trying to find out ways and means that could give him a face saving and enable him to make an honourable exit from the embarrassing situation he finds himself deeply mired in.
In the beginning, president Trump was certain that he would subdue Iran without facing resistance as it did in Venezuela. At the end of first week of war, president Trump was seen proudly asserting that the US- Israel’s joint operation had decimated Iran’s military might to the core and that they had won the war. At the end of second week, he toned down and said that it might take a few more days to make Iran surrender, and now, at the end of third week, he seems to impliedly admit his failure to achieve the objective despite using all kinds of kinetic force short of nuclear weapons unheard of in human history; and now urges China, Russia, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Australia to send their warships to open the strait of Hormuz for oil shipment which Iran has blocked. It may be recalled that earlier president Trump had scornfully spurned UK prime minister’s offer to send his warship to Strait of Hormuz saying that he had already won the war.
The war on Iran is ingeniously choreographed by the US and Israel to pit the Gulf countries against Iran and finally turn it into a Sunni Vs Shia war. But hats off to the Gulf countries who have exuded wisdom, maturity and farsightedness, have shown unprecedented restraint and kept themselves out of the conflict despite intense efforts made by Israel and the US to drag them into it. In this regard, the positive role played by Pakistan shouldn’t be brushed off as it prevailed upon both Iran and the Gulf countries to refrain from mutual fight that would only benefit the US and Israel.
Iran’s staunch nationalism, resilience and a graceful display of an exemplary unity carries a good lesson for all those nations who are experiencing internal rift, the lesson being that it’s well-nigh impossible to win a war against a nation that stands united with a do-or-die resolve in the face of hard knocks.
The world leaders must understand that there is an urgent need to intervene and do a meaningful mediation to end the war before it spirals out of control making the world witness a repeat of the nuclear catastrophe of Second World War. President Trump may not hesitate to take any extreme step to maintain its global hegemony if the balloon goes up as it is evident from the latest reports that the US has targeted the Iranian nuclear sites which may prompt Iran to attack Israel’s nuclear sites as a tit-for-tat response. This may be a prelude to go for something unthinkable by the US if push comes to shove.
Although, it would be premature to predict about the denouement of the war drama so consummately staged by President Trump on the persuasion of Israeli prime minister Netanyahu, it has become abundantly clear that the myth of US’ invincibility as a super military might has been smashed to the ground. Even if Trump manages to make an honourable exit from the war one way or the other, though the chances of which seem to be very slim, it has become manifest to the world that Iran has knocked the starch out of the US as a superpower.
