UNITED NATIONS: Secretary-General António Guterres has singled out Pakistan as part of a critical mediation effort to prevent the Strait of Hormuz crisis from spiralling into a wider global economic emergency.
Speaking at the UN in New York City, Mr Guterres said countries involved in the Pakistan-led mediator team were engaged in urgent consultations alongside the United States, Iran and Gulf states to preserve freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital shipping corridors. He warned that without swift diplomacy, the disruption could deepen inflation, fuel hunger and push fragile economies closer to recession.
He said the interruption of oil, gas and fertilizer shipments was damaging transport networks and industrial production worldwide. Moreover, he warned that prolonged uncertainty could deepen economic pain far beyond the conflict zone.
Economic fallout deepens
The UN chief said even the most optimistic projections showed lasting damage to the world economy. He noted that if restrictions ended immediately, global growth could still slow from 3.4 per cent to 3.1pc this year. At the same time, global inflation could rise from 3.8pc to 4.4pc, reversing recent progress.
He added that merchandise trade growth could fall sharply, while supply chains would need months to recover. Mr Guterres said poorer nations would suffer the most because heavy debt burdens had already weakened their ability to absorb fresh shocks.
Millions could face hunger
The secretary-general outlined a second scenario in which disruptions continue through midyear. Under that forecast, he said global growth could slip to 2.5pc while inflation could climb to 5.4pc. He warned that nearly 32 million people could fall into poverty under that scenario.
In addition, fertilizer shortages could reduce crop yields and leave 45 million more people facing extreme hunger. He said development gains in vulnerable countries could disappear within months if the crisis remained unresolved.
Worst-case scenario
Mr Guterres said a third scenario would emerge if severe restrictions continued until the end of the year. He warned that inflation could rise above 6pc while growth could slow to just 2pc.
Such a shock, he said, could destabilise governments and worsen social unrest in fragile states. “These consequences are not cumulative. They are exponential,” he said.
He stressed that each day of blocked passage through the strait increased the economic cost for the world.
Call for immediate action
Mr Guterres urged all parties to restore navigational freedoms in line with Security Council Resolution 2817. “Open the Strait. Let all ships pass. Let the global economy breathe again,” he said.
However, he added that reopening alone would not be enough without safe and insurable shipping routes.
He also called on all sides to avoid steps that could undermine the ceasefire. Meanwhile, he said the UN was continuing diplomatic contacts to support a peaceful and lasting settlement.
UN pushes diplomatic effort
The secretary-general said senior UN officials were already working on emergency contingency plans. He said Arsenio Dominguez was preparing a framework to evacuate ships and seafarers if conditions worsened.
He also said Jorge Moreira da Silva would visit regional capitals to discuss a possible humanitarian corridor. According to Mr Guterres, the consultations involve the United States, Iran, Gulf states and mediators led by Pakistan. He said the immediate goal remained the full restoration of freedom of navigation in the strategic waterway.
US funding pressure rejected
During the same briefing, Mr Guterres rejected reports that the United States was linking its 2026 UN payments to internal reforms.
He said assessed contributions from member states were legal obligations and could not be negotiated. He acknowledged that the UN would continue efficiency reforms under its UN80 agenda.
However, he insisted that institutional reform and mandatory funding were separate issues. “The world is waiting,” he said, urging diplomacy before the crisis causes deeper global damage.